14
May
2008

Fantasy QB Preview: Five Up, Five Down

Posted by Steve Kwan

As year-long fantasy enthusiasts start to keep tabs about who’s looking good for 2008, we take a look at ten quarterbacks not named Peyton or Tom and try to analyze their fantasy potential this fall.

Some of these quarterbacks will surely have a jump in value, while many more will slide after mediocre efforts in 2007. On a whole, the quarterback position took a beating in 2007, meaning that there is rebound value to be had at if owners are patient.

FIVE UP:

David Garrard, Jacksonville Jaguars
Garrard had a very solid 2007 throwing the ball, most of which was lost in the hubbub of New England’s race toward perfection. Even more amazing, Garrard had a career year after going undrafted in most leagues after Byron Leftwich had been released.

Defenses who now have a year’s worth of tape on Garrard and will find ways to harass him more and pick off more than three of his passes this year. The Jags added Jerry Porter over the offseason to give Garrard a halfway legit target man, but the offense still heavily leans on the 1-2 punch of running backs Fred Taylor and Maurice Jones-Drew, a fact which is reflected in Garrard’s passing yards, which barely broke 2,500 last season.

In a standard 10-12 team league, Garrard would be a great backup QB or a lower tier starter somewhere around the 10th round. Any pick higher than that, however, would be iffy due to the fact that he’s only had one year as an impact performer.

Ben Roethlisberger, Pittsburgh Steelers
Big Ben responded beautifully to his 2006 horror show with a dominant 2007 season that has thrown him into a fantasy level just below Peyton Manning and Tom Brady. The Steelers lost guard Alan Faneca during the offseason, but the draft-day thefts of Rashard Mendenhall and Limas Sweed will ensure that this time, Big Ben is here to stay as an elite fantasy player. Just remind him to wear a helmet next time he decides to burn up the roads on a motorcycle.

Roethlisberger’s lofty 2007 will almost certainly land him in the neighborhood of Tony Romo and Carson Palmer in draft rankings, and he has a decent chance of outperforming both of them, especially Palmer. With Sweed, the “big” receiver that he’s publicly wished for, Roethlisberger also looks to improve on his 3100 + yards from 2007.

Derek Anderson, Cleveland Browns
Everybody’s favorite waiver pickup of 2007 is now back for some big bucks in Cleveland while ensuring that Brady Quinn will have more free time to film semi-amusing Subway commercials. Anderson threw for 29 touchdowns and 19 interceptions as Cleveland’s revival fell just short of the playoffs, and the offseason addition of Donte Stallworth will give Anderson the opportunity to add to his TD totals.

All of this, of course, is assuming that Anderson does not regress, leaving him in a similar fantasy position as the aforementioned Garrard. Anderson’s value probably won’t be as high due to his interceptions, but to take him over someone like Drew Brees just based on 2007 statistics would be a very risky proposition.

Matt Hasselbeck, Seattle Seahawks
After a disappointing 2006, Hasselbeck was categorized as a QB who’s real-life worth didn’t always translate to fantasy goodness. His 2007 campaign proved otherwise, as he threw for a career-high 28 touchdowns with only 12 interceptions and nearly topped the 4,000-yard mak.

Seattle’s receiving corps looks a little scrambled at the moment, with Bobby Engram in a contract dispute with the team and Deion Branch injured. Hasselbeck will be 33 this seasons, and seeing that he’s never passed 30 touchdowns in a season, it seems that 2007 might represent his ceiling. Don’t pay more than what he costs last preseason - a sixth to eighth round pick.

Jason Campbell, Washington Redskins
Campbell enters the next phase of his career as a starter, and he does so with more ammunition than ever. The fact that Washington took two receivers and a tight end with their first three picks in this year’s draft shows that management is confident in Campbell and wants to see him throw more. Campbell will have to exercise more on-field command to succeed; an intangible that can’t be measured by any fantasy statistic.

Campbell will be a late-round target or go undrafted, but among likely undrafted starters such as Matt Schaub and JaMarcus Russell, Campbell has the most upside for a productive 2008.

FIVE DOWN:

Carson Palmer, Cincinnati Bengals
Palmer is a former fantasy favorite of mine, which makes it a shame to watch how he’s being wasted in Cincinnati’s dysfunctional organization. His 20 interceptions last season were the highest of his four-year career, and this came despite his sack total going from 36 in 2006 to 17 in 2007.

Because of those stats and the constant turmoil in Cincy, Palmer is likely to fall out of the top tier of drafted quarterbacks this year into the fifth-seventh round area. Cincinnati still has a pretty good receiving corps, so if he can be had that low, snap him up and cross your fingers.

Donovan McNabb, Philadelphia Eagles
McNabb threw for over 3,000 yards in 2007, but ever since his breakthrough 2004 season, his touchdown line has read like this; 16- 18-19. Now this is understandable due to his injury issues lack of playmakers, but McNabb has always had a confusingly high draft stock. Owners seem to be convinced that if he’s healthy, 35 TDs are just waiting around the corner.

While McNabb and Brian Westbrook make the Eagles dangerous as long as they’re together, McNabb shouldn’t be taken over Hasselbeck; something that has happened in almost every fantasy football draft I’ve seen.

Matt Leinart, Arizona Cardinals
Former USC golden boy Leinart should be putting up big numbers in Arizona’s pass-friendly offense. Instead, the popular sleeper fantasy pick from 2007 was unseated by injury and now finds himself in a position battle with the evergreen Kurt Warner. Leinart stands a good chance of losing that battle; even when healthy, Leinart has yet to look like a front-end NFL starter.

Leinart will most likely be a last-round flier on draft day. Whoever picks up Warner beforehand could do worse than use their throwaway pick on Leinart as insurance.

Marc Bulger, St. Louis Rams
Bulger used to be the QB taken right after McNabb, but this year he’s probably staring at the bargain bin after a horrendous injury-riddled 2007 for both him and the Rams. He still has Torry Holt, and any improvement over the misery of last season should help Bulger bounce back.

If healthy, expect Bulger to surpass 20 touchdowns, a total which he’s perfectly capable of reaching, and then some. It remains to be seen how the other pieces of the Rams puzzle will fall alongside him, so don’t tab him as your sure-fire sleeper starter yet.

Jay Cutler, Denver Broncos
The semi-buzz created by ESPN’s Matthew Berry last preseason sent Cutler’s stock upward and saw him leapfrog over Vince Young and Matt Leinart into the single-digit rounds of drafts. And while Cutler certainly outperformed his draft classmates, his 20-to-14 TD-to-interception ratio didn’t blow anyone away. Assuming that his offseason diabetes diagnosis doesn’t affect his play, however, he looks to be good to go for 2008.

His stock is probably falling as a result of not living up to 2007 hype, but Cutler should be able to repeat his line from 2007, even without Javon Walker and Rod Smith. Brandon Marshall took a big step forward last year and established himself as Cutler’s top target. After guys like Anderson, Hasselbeck and McNabb go off the draft board, Cutler is clearly the best of the rest.

Steve Kwan is a junior journalism student at Penn State University. He can be contacted at stk138[at]psu.edu.

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