May
In all fantasy sports, making a note to draft hotshots rookie early can pay huge dividends. Adrian Peterson proved that to all of us last season, despite the fact that many experts predicted that he would only score modestly while splitting time with Chester Taylor.
With the exception of quarterbacks, first-rounders on the offensive side have usually proven to be good investments if they land in a system that fits them, especially since their stock usually starts very low on draft boards.
Case in point: Can’t-miss prospect Calvin Johnson, the second overall pick of 2007 and perennial sixth-to-seventh round pick in fantasy drafts, had 756 yards and four TDs in Detroit’s start-and-stop offense, while Dwayne Bowe, the 23rd pick who automatically became the No. 1 receiver in Kansas City, became a waiver-wire gem with 995 yards and five TDs.
So how do 2008’s first round offense studs look to fare?
QB Matt Ryan - No. 3 overall by the Atlanta Falcons
There’s no need to rush the future of the Falcons into action, so he’ll have ample clipboard time watching Joey Harrington and Chris Redman get crushed by opposing offenses. He’ll take some snaps at the end of the season for sure, but its fair to expect literally nothing from Ryan fantasy-wise this year. Both Ryan and the Falcons will be better off because of that. 2008 Grade: D
RB Darren McFadden - No. 4 overall by the Oakland Raiders
Let us clear the air right now: McFadden will not be able to repeat Peterson’s stats from last year. For one, I’ve always believed that if Peterson had been healthy when he was at Oklahoma, he would’ve been a hands-down No. 1 or No. 2 pick. Secondly, McFadden does not have Steve Hutchinson on his team.
Nevertheless, McFadden will be given every chance to succeed in his first season, with Dominic Rhodes being the first (and probably not the last) running back to be shown the door at Oakland after McFadden’s arrival. In fantasy drafts, McFadden will go off the board where Peterson did last year, if not a little higher (fourth-sixth round); if you don’t have two stud RBs by then, your hands are probably tied. 2008 Grade: B
RB Jonathan Stewart - No. 13 overall by the Carolina Panthers
Stewart lands in a better situation than McFadden in that he will only have to deal with DeAngelo Williams, who the Panthers seem to have lost faith in already after only two years. Stewart is currently rehabbing a toe injury, but on a Carolina team desperate not to waste Steve Smith’s golden years, he’ll get every chance to flash the bruising style and all-around talent he showed at Oregon. 2008 Grade: B+
QB Joe Flacco - No. 18 overall by the Baltimore Ravens
Speaking of wasting someone’s golden years, the window for Baltimore’s once-unstoppable defense to once again win a championship seems to have closed. Flacco, who was a virtual unknown before the NFL Combine, will immediately compete with Kyle Boller and Troy Smith to start for the Ravens. He has to sit out of minicamp until the University of Delaware finishes its spring semester exams, but is said to already be looking impressive. If he wins the job, he could be an intriguing waiver-wire pick, but he should be an afterthought until you see some results. 2008 Grade: C
RB Felix Jones - No. 22 overall by the Dallas Cowboys
Jones becomes option 1B in the Cowboys running game, with Marion Barber becoming 1A with Julius Jones gone. Felix Jones is a versatile back who is both quick and shifty, but for now the majority of the red zone opportunities will go to Barber. The kid looks to have a strong future, but it’s not here yet. Could be a value pick at the end of your draft. 2008 Grade: B-
RB Rashard Mendenhall - No. 23 overall by the Pittsburgh Steelers
The Steelers did not draft Mendenhall with the intention of sitting him. Willie Parker, despite running for over 1300 yards last season, was derailed by injury at the end of the season and finished with only two touchdowns to show for his efforts. Mendenhall and Parker will likely take the field together for many downs in 2008, much like the New Orleans Saints have done with their Bush/McAllister duo. Many experts predict that Mendenhall will be reduced to third-and-inches running in 2008, but I think that Mendenhall has enough talent to immediately position himself as a red-zone threat. 2008 Grade: B+
RB/WR Chris Johnson - No. 24 overall by the Tennessee Titans
After everyone got over the disappointment that the Titans once again passed on a WR in the first round, they realized that Johnson, another combine standout like Flacco, was actually a WR/RB hybrid who ran an amazing 4.2 in the 40-yard dash. He certainly has big-play potential as the lightning to LenDale White’s thunder, but the biggest fantasy impact of his drafting is that Vince Young seems to once again be destined for mediocre passing stats. 2008 Grade: C-
TE Dustin Keller - No. 30 overall by the New York Jets
The Jets have lacked a quality receiving TE for the last couple of years, and Purdue University’s Keller was certainly the best of 2008’s TE crop. The question now is who will be throwing the ball to him for the Jets, and with neither Kellen Clemens nor Chad Pennington looking impressive, it could be a long and hard slog for Keller this season. 2008 Grade: D
Bonus Feature: Wide Receivers
As no pure wideouts were taken in the first round of the 2008, we will also run down three second-round WRs who couldmake some fantasy noise this season:
WR Donnie Avery - No. 33 overall by the St. Louis Rams
Avery was the first WR off the board in 2008 and figures to be given a chance to start right away with the Rams, who could use his blazing speed and catch-and-run ability to get their offense back on track. With both Torry Holt and Isaac Bruce aging, Avery is being groomed as the Wes Welker-type slot threat. Could be a nice sleeper pick, but looks to be a better prospect for down the road. 2008 Grade: B-
WR Devin Thomas - No. 34 overall by the Washington Redskins
Thomas looked to be the top receiver on the eve of the draft and will now have the inside track to a starting spot alongside Santana Moss in Washington. Jason Campbell’s consistency on a pro level is still somewhat of a mystery, so expect Thomas to finish with a stat line similar to Calvin Johnson’s 2007 efforts, which is worth drafting in the later rounds. 2008 Grade: B
WR Limas Sweed - No. 53 overall by the Pittsburgh Steelers
Sweed is the big, physical receiver that Big Ben has been publicly pining for over the offseason, but first he will have to unseat Nate Washington and get into the starting lineup. He’s taller than any other Steelers’ receiver though, and on that merit alone he will probably see the field often in the red zone. Don’t expect big yards out of him this season, but if Big Ben warms to throwing to his new big receiver, Sweed could have 5+ TDs as a rookie. 2008 Grade: B

