Aug
One of the more exciting parts of preseason fantasy football, rookie evaluations can either make a quick impact on teams or fall flat on their faces as wasted draft picks. More often than not, the latter proves true, but if we learned one thing from Adrian Peterson’s 2007 romp, it’s that we should certainly believe that big results are possible.
Some overreaction is all but guaranteed in the post-A.P. Era, and most of it will center around Oakland physical specimen Darren McFadden. Owners everywhere are still sore about the fact that they passed on Peterson at nearly the same draft position (mid-3rd round) and will be damned if they make the same mistake. Problem is, odds are slim and none that McFadden’s arrival has half the impact of Peterson’s.
Three of the most intriguing rookies were taken after the first round, as Baltimore’s Ray Rice, Chicago’s Matt Forte and Denver’s Ryan Torain are all in great position to make fantasy contributions.
Rookie wide receivers are easier than ever to avoid, something fantasy owners should be thankful for. No wideouts were taken in the first round of the NFL Draft, meaning that there are far fewer expectations heaped upon a mega-talent, a la Calvin Johnson, and far fewer wasted picks in fantasy drafts. DeSean Jackson is the lone receiver on this list because he provides a sorely needed playmaking punch to the Eagles defense and special teams.
In 2008, the fact that no wideouts were taken in the first round of the NFL Draft, will mean far fewer wasted picks on the likes of, say, Calvin Johnson. DeSean Jackson is the lone receiver on this list, and it’s not because of his place in the Philadelphia Eagles’ passing game.
Here’s a breakdown of who we think can have the biggest fantasy impacts in 2008:
1. Darren McFadden, RB, Oakland Raiders
McFadden is the top candidate to make an Adrian Peterson-like impact on the fantasy landscape, but it may not happen right away. McFadden runs a similar, straight-up style to Peterson’s, but without the elusiveness. He’ll have a little to learn, most likely the hard way from opposing linebackers, but talent will win the day. No way owner Al Davis will let his new toy get fewer than 15 touches per game.
2 Jonathan Stewart, RB, Carolina Panthers
Stewart lands in a better situation than McFadden in that he will only have to deal with DeAngelo Williams, who the Panthers seem to have lost faith in already after just two years. Stewart is currently rehabbing a toe injury, but on a Carolina team desperate not to waste Steve Smith’s golden years, he’ll get every chance to flash the bruising style and all-around talent he showed at Oregon.
3. Matt Forte, RB, Chicago Bears
The Bears coaching staff loves Forte’s game and, more importantly, his attitude and preparation. While his stock was higher shortly after Cedric Benson’s second arrest, Forte should still out-duel recent signee Kevin Jones and carve out a majority of carries. Questions remain about the Bears’ ability to move the football, but Forte will have nice value as a rusher and pass-catcher, especially in PPR leagues.
4. Rashard Mendenhall, RB, Pittsburgh Steelers
Mendenhall was the most polished running back in the draft, and he arrived in a situation where he can make an immediate impact. Steelers starting running back Willie Parker’s slight build will free up carries in third-down and goal-line situations, which should translate into decent fantasy production. And let’s not forget, Parker is far from a sure thing; he’s seen his rushing average fall from 4.7 yards per carry in 2005 to 4.4 ypc in 2006 and 4.1 ypc in 2007.
5. Ryan Torain, RB, Denver Broncos
One Denver running back always seems to get preseason buzz as the next “nobody” to win a starting job and rush for 1,000 yards. Incumbent Selvin Young was that guy last year and got his chance in the latter portion of the year. While Young sits atop the Broncos’ depth chart, Torain is generating enough excitement, both in the media and within team camp, to be well worth a 12th or 13th round choice in fantasy drafts. By midseason, we should see this fourth rounder out of Arizona State getting a majority of carries.
6. Felix Jones, RB, Dallas Cowboys
Jones becomes option 1B in the Cowboys running game, with Marion Barber becoming 1A with Julius Jones gone. Felix Jones is a versatile back who is both quick and shifty, but for now the majority of the red zone opportunities will go to Barber. The kid looks to have a strong future, but it’s not here yet. Could be a value pick at the end of your draft.
7. Chris Johnson, RB, Tennessee Titans
After everyone got over the disappointment that the Titans once again passed on a wide receiver in the first round, they realized that Johnson, another combine standout like Ravens quarterback Joe Flacco, was actually a WR/RB hybrid who ran an amazing 4.2 in the 40-yard dash. He certainly has big-play potential as the lightning to LenDale White’s thunder, but the biggest fantasy impact of his drafting is that Vince Young seems to once again be destined for mediocre passing numbers.
8. Jerod Mayo, LB, New England Patriots
The Patriots properly addressed their lack of youth and athleticism at the linebacker position by bringing in one of the best athletes in the linebacker class. Mayo can play inside or outside in New England’s 3-4 scheme, and he will be a punishing tackler in either position. Head coach Bill Belichick will get some kicks out of adding new wrinkles for Mayo to a defense that was one of fantasy’s elite in 2007.
9. Ray Rice, RB, Baltimore Ravens
Rice may have a lesser opportunity on paper than the top running backs on this list, but he’s had the best training camp thus far and could be a factor early. Starter Willis McGahee is walking around on a creaky knee, and Rice has shown the polish and explosion to jump in and be effective right away. He’s also catching passes out of the backfield and returning kicks and punts. The Ravens love his ability, and fantasy owners should respect that late in drafts.
10. DeSean Jackson, WR, Philadelphia Eagles
Jackson’s presence may not be felt immediately in the passing game, but the Eagles’ special teams should get a nice boost with his big-play ability in the return game. Philly suffered from an astounding lack of playmakers last season, and the team’s return game has been in tough shape since Brian Westbrook was the regular return man in 2003. With Jackson returning kicks and new cornerback Asante Samuel locking down opposing receivers, the Eagles defense will be vastly improved this season.
