Aug
Anyone on Wall Street will tell you that a major key to making money is diversifying their investments - putting money into different industries, different sized companies and different markets. By purchasing stock in all of these different types of companies, the risk of each individual stock is drowned out by the collective strength of the portfolio.
The same principle applies in fantasy football. Every, single player comes with some kind of inherent risk, some obviously more so than others. Age, inexperience, injuries, size, offensive scheme, etc., etc., are all unique risks to individual players. The goal of diversifying is to eliminate all of these individual risks, which can be done by drafting complementary pieces to your team’s puzzle.
A team full of high upside, low certainty rookies is risky, but so is a team full of low-upside, high-certainty veterans. The trick is to seek out a happy medium of sure things, long shots, safe risks (2nd and 3rd year players ready to break out), veterans and youth. With some nice assembly, the results are almost always positive.
Got two low-risk veterans in the first two rounds? Take advantage of that strength and open yourself up to the risk of a rookie or unknown commodity. Did you go with sky-high upside early? Even that out by looking for veterans in the later rounds.
As you proceed through your draft, you want to balance out your personnel while filling positions as effectively as you can. This requires an owner to not take a rigid approach to drafting, but rather taking what the draft gives you. Changing preferences on the fly and adjusting to your developing strengths and weakness are keys.
Here’s an example of a realistic draft scenario where we take the “portfolio approach” to selecting players. In this sample, we’ve drawn the second overall pick in a 10-team, standard “snake” draft. Starting positions are as follows: QB, RB, RB, RB/WR, WR, WR, WR, TE, D/ST, K. There are six bench spots to fill, so this fake draft will go 16 rounds deep.
Round 1 (2): Adrian Peterson, RB, MIN - Taking the best overall talent is the priority here; go off your draft rankings and start with a player you like to have a big year.
Round 2 (19): Maurice Jones-Drew, RB, JAC - Again, best available is a good approach. The rest of your draft will be based on what you do here, so carry out your early strategy - i.e., RB-RB, RB-QB - the best way you know how.
Round 3 (22): Reggie Wayne, WR, IND - Here’s a good opportunity to strike some balance. If you can choose between Braylon Edwards and Wayne, take the more proven product Wayne to complement two young backs with elements of uncertainty.
Round 4 (39): Wes Welker, WR, NE - Having missed desired QBs Carson Palmer and Ben Roethlisberger this round, we went ahead and filled out another skill position with a quality pass catcher. Neither Wayne nor Welker are hugh TD threats, but their consistency will be extremely valuable with AP and MJD doing big damage.
Round 5 (42): Jason Witten, TE, DAL - The decision once again is to either reach for a QB and not get maximum value or build another prime strength. We decided to take the top tight end and focus on dominating that position on a weekly basis.
Round 6 (59): Jay Cutler, QB, DEN - “Controlled upside” is the catch phrase here, and we could use it after missing on the top five QBs on the board. We’ve established strengths and certainty at RB, WR and TE, so a little risk is desirable to try and make up ground at QB.
Round 7 (62): LenDale White, RB, TEN - Where our top two RBs are more explosive, big-play types, White is a physical grinder who can carry 25+ times per week. He is also a nice buy-low candidate, so this pick comes at an affordable price.
Round 8 (79): David Garrard, QB, JAC - Here is our first true “safety net,” a top backup in the event that Cutler struggles or suffers a setback from his diabetes. Garrard can step in at any time and put up competitive point totals.
Round 9 (82): Kevin Curtis, WR, PHI - Curtis proved to be a quality fantasy play last season, but his strength came in big, productive outbursts. Those outbursts can push us to easy victories, while we can deal with hiw down weeks with our two reliable WRs.
Round 10 (99): Chargers D/ST - This pick is in the same mold as Witten in the fifth round. Do we begin addressing our bench or establish another strength at a lesser position? The combination of Witten and the Chargers defense gives us margin for error at the other positions.
Round 11 (102): Ahman Green, RB, HOU - We’re all set at RB, so why not absorb Green’s health risks and draft another NFL starter for our bench? If Green struggles with DNPs once again, we’re in good shape to keep him stashed on our bench.
Round 12 (119): Nate Burleson, WR, SEA - Swing for the fences here with your fourth WR. Patrick Crayton is another upside pick going off the board in this range.
Round 13 (122): Ray Rice, RB, BAL - Speaking of swinging for the fences. We feel good that Green can stay healthy long enough to help overcome early bye weeks, so Rice is a longer term option. He could be a difference maker in the second half of the year.
Round 14 (139): Chris Johnson, RB, TEN - Handcuffs for Peterson and Jones-Drew were too high priced for our liking. Johnson, of course, comes with a great deal of uncertainty, but he’s a good pick in this range, especially as a safety for White in our flex position.
Round 15 (142): Jabar Gaffney, WR, NE -Given the number of rookies and upside picks on our bench, one veteran backup will work nicely. Gaffney is as good as anybody with his potential to be New England’s No. 3 WR.
Round 16 (159): Phil Dawson, K, CLE - Not good position to grab a kicker with the second-to-last pick, but take whoever you think can make a contribution. In our case, Dawson makes for a good choice doing the kicking for Cleveland’s explosive offense.
Our portfolio is a good mix of different risks and rewards. We have upside rookies on our bench, but they are joined by veterans like Green and Gaffney. Our running backs are home run hitters, who are prone to either injury or down weeks, so consistent wide receiver play can carry us through some of their inconsistent times.
The top two picks set the tone for the whole draft, but we reacted to what the draft was giving us. As added bonuses, we got premium producers with Witten and the Chargers defense. Making the commitment to strengthen our “secondary” positions, as mentioned, gives us a margin for error at the other positions, which we also feel are more than good enough to compete.
There are thousands upon thousands of possibilities for every draft, and there are just as many ways to tweak your approach based on personal preference. Just remember, as important as it is to build strengths on your roster, it’s equally important to eliminate potential weaknesses. And you do so by finding the players who complement your top draft choices the best.
Dustin Hockensmith is editor of ImaginaryGridiron.com. He can be contacted at dhockensmith[at]fantasysports101.net.

