Aug
To accompany Imaginary Gridiron’s list of sleeper candidates for 2008, here is a list of 15 potential bust players who are being given star treatment in preseason drafting.
As teams open their camps through July and August the names on this list will undoubtedly shift and change, and while it is difficult to call someone a “bust” without having seen them play yet, enthusiastic owners have placed some players on pedestals that are frankly too high.
QUARTERBACKS
Eli Manning, New York Giants
It might be a tad cruel to label Eli a potential bust already, but the bump he’s received since leading the Giants to glory has been significant. He does have some things going for him, namely that at 27, now would be the peak time for him to raise his game to the next level. But consider this: Eli’s stats in 2007 were actually worse than his 2006 marks. In the regular season, he had a QB rating of 73 and lost five more fumbles than in ‘06. His tendency to turn it up late in the season may be enticing, but if you take him over guys like Drew Brees and Carson Palmer, you may find yourself playing for third place instead of first.
Donovan McNabb, Philadephia Eagles
Everyone acknowledges that McNabb is a great quarterback when healthy; too bad he hasn’t had a full season of health since 2004. What’s worse is that with the exception of the RB position, the Eagles are a far worse team than they were in 2004, and DeSean Jackson doesn’t figure to be the target that McNabb could use to elevate his passing game. In all of my drafts so far, McNabb has been taken before at least one of the following QBs: Palmer, Matt Hasselbeck, and Derek Anderson. If you are that sold on this being McNabb’s magical rebound year, at least grab a valuable backup QB to cover yourself.
WIDE RECEIVERS
Braylon Edwards, Cleveland Browns
This time last year, Edwards was looking like a real-life bust and was being passed over for guys like Calvin Johnson and Lee Evans. But now after a breakthrough year, he’s been vaulted into the same tier as Chad Johnson, Larry Fitzgerald, and Torry Holt. Make no mistake about it, defenses who slacked off on Edwards during the first half of the season won’t be fooled again. In the first half of 2007 Edwards averaged 96 yards a game; in the second half, that dropped drastically to a more modest 67 yards. Edwards is a solid fourth-fifth round pick a la Detroit’s Roy Williams, but right now he’s entrenched in the third round, which is too high for my liking. Pass him over and take Wes Welker or T.J. Houshmandzadeh later instead.
Jerricho Cotchery, New York Jets
Fantasy owners have been unusually high on Cotchery so far, which is puzzling for a number of reasons. One, his TD total of 2 from last season doesn’t seem primed to explode in 2008 as the Jets struggle to find a winning QB to put on the field. Another reason is that the wide receiver crop looks pretty strong this season, which makes Cotchery’s selection over guys like Chris Chambers and Nate Burleson pretty strange. Maybe I’m out of the loop on Cotchery, but the stats and his situation certainly don’t warrant such attention.
Roddy White, Atlanta Falcons
That White managed to squeeze 1,200 yards out of the Atlanta offense last year is a minor miracle unto itself, but football is ultimately a team game, and the Falcons are rebuilding in such a way that there are actually worse prospects for the team in ‘08. Those yards and his 6 TDs have led to owners viewing him as a mid-round pick, but as far as upside goes, in no way does White trump Hines Ward or Anquan Boldin.
Bernard Berrian - Minnesota VIkings
Berrian put up fine numbers in the QB circus that was Chicago and now he’ll be charged with helping get the best out of Tarvaris Jackson’s passing. Berrian’s been holding down the lower-mid round value that he was given, but among the group of WRs available from the 8th-10th round, Berrian ends up behind Nate Burleson, Anthony Gonzalez, and Patrick Crayton in my pecking order. Crayton especially gets a boost over Berrian with Terry Glenn being released from the Cowboys.
Javon Walker - Oakland Raiders
Bizarre mugging cases aside, many owners seem to be banking on Walker to bring his pre-injury Denver numbers to Oakland. And while the signs are positive in regard to JaMarcus Russell, Walker’s jump in value is a total shot in the dark, a shot which so many owners are taking that he doesn’t qualify as a sleeper anymore. There are many good options at WR in the middle rounds, and those aren’t the spots to be rolling the dice on Walker, who clearly has some non-football problems to deal with right now.
RUNNING BACKS
Frank Gore - San Francisco 49ers
I’m not saying that Gore will be a “bust” per se, but coming out out of a 2007 season where both he and his team were largely disappointing, he has inexplicably surged forward as a first-round pick ahead of the likes of Clinton Portis and Larry Johnson. Maybe owners are buying into the Mike Martz offense, but isn’t this the same Mike Martz who was often accused of burying his team’s running game?
Ryan Grant - Green Bay Packers
Grant’s late-seasons emergence has vaulted him squarely into the second round of every draft I’ve been in, which is dangerous considering how much Green Bay has changed over the offseason. Owners are clearly hoping Grant will be the next Willie Parker, but the beauty with Parker in 2006 was that defenses had to pay attention to both him and Jerome Bettis, a luxury Grant doesn’t have. And with defenses in 2008 determined to challenge Aaron Rodgers to beat them, Grant is unlikely to improve on his numbers from last year. Don’t pass over guys like Larry Johnson or Maurice Jones-Drew for Grant.
Willis McGahee - Baltimore Ravens
The Ravens’ dysfunctional offense will make life harder for McGahee, who has never quite lived up to the hype surrounding him, some of which he produced for himself. And whoever is under center for Baltimore will most likely end up in a mess, and defenses will stack up the box to stuff McGahee, Baltimore’s only legitimate weapon. He’s currently in a similar situation as Grant, entrenched in the second round with a multitude of better options surrounding him.
Darren McFadden, Oakland Raiders
McFadden finds himself slightly higher than Adrian Peterson was last year, and while that may reflect his value, he finds himself in a crowded backfield in Oakland. Maybe, just MAYBE he could put up Peterson-esque numbers, but look at the guys being drafted after him; Edgerrin James, Earnest Graham, Reggie Bush, and even Rudi Johnson could provide better returns than McFadden.
TIGHT ENDS
Vernon Davis, San Francisco 49ers
Davis has jumped over former tight end stalwarts Tony Gonzalez and Alge Crumpler in the TE pecking order, but how many touches will he get in San Francisco’s popgun passing game? Mike Martz has reportedly drawn up multiple schemes which involve Davis, but if there’s no competent QB to execute those schemes, Davis won’t produce enough to match the projections.
Kevin Boss - New York Giants
Boss was playoffs in the playoffs, but let’s clear up one thing now: Kevin Boss is not anywhere near as talented as Jeremy Shockey. Then again, Shockey just pulled a “T.O.” all the way out of New York, and owners have taken notice, taking Boss over other TE prospects Greg Olsen and Randy McMichael. Olsen has lots of talent and McMichael will presumably have a healthy Marc Bulger, so Boss will have much to do to justify his value.
DEFENSES/SPECIAL TEAMS
Chicago Bears
Many owners are still high on the Bears D, even though they only kept their status as an elite defense through the virtue of one uncommon stat: blocked field goals. Other than that, almost all of their numbers were down in 2007. Chicago is somehow ranked the sixth-best defense by Yahoo! Sports O-rank, but in terms of fantasy points, it ranks 10th, with Pittsburgh and Jacksonville breathing down their necks for this season.
Dallas Cowboys
The Cowboys are one notch ahead of Chicago at ninth; which makes sense, as the Cowboys individual stars have had the luxury of watching their offense do most of the work. The Cowboys rack up the individual power stats (sacks, interceptions, 3 TDs), but ranked 12th in points allowed, meaning that less flashy defenses like Tampa Bay and Seattle outscored them in terms of fantasy points. Save your mid-level pick and pass on this set of defenders; you can get Seattle later or even Tampa Bay as a last pick.

