They say in real football circles that nobody cares about kickers until you need them, and the same is true in fantasy. As much as all kickers’ statistics generally level off by the end of the year, kickers can determine the outcomes of fantasy matchups on a week-to-week basis. The sad part is that it’s nearly impossible to gauge when a kicker will have a good season or game. How can you possibly predict when a kicker’s offense will be good enough to drive down the field, but not good enough to capitalize in the red zone?

The answer to this quandary is to just play the percentages. You want to find kickers that either play in a good offense, play in a good weather or domed stadium, or have demonstrated a powerful and/or accurate leg. The best kickers have a combination, if not all, of these attributes.

Some top-tier kickers that are fortunate to be in good offenses are Nick Folk, Nate Kaeding and Stephen Gostkowski. Kickers that benefit from good home-field advantages are Josh Brown and Adam Vinatieri. Kickers that have shown a strong leg in recent years are Rob Bironas and Kris Brown. Kickers that have shown good accuracy are Josh Scobee, Jeff Reed and Shayne Graham. In that order, evaluate kickers to see how they fit in your starting lineup.

In the end though, most NFL kickers have very similar number by year’s end, which is why you should wait until the last round or two to grab one. And in the meantime, just hope that the kicker’s offense is good, but not too good.

POSITION RANKINGS
** Players separated by tiers

1. Nick Folk, DAL
2. Nate Kaeding, SD
3. Shayne Graham, CIN

4. Adam Vinatieri, IND
5. Stephen Gostkowski, NE
6. Mason Crosby, GB
7. Robbie Gould, CHI

8. Phil Dawson, CLE
9. Josh Brown, STL
10. Rob Bironas, TEN

11. Josh Scobee, JAX
12. Neil Rackers, ARZ
13. Jeff Reed, PIT
14. Kris Brown, HOU
15. Jason Hanson, DET

FIVE TO WATCH

David Akers, Philadelphia Eagles
Don’t be fooled by his name value, Akers’ last few seasons have been subpar for his standards. He hasn’t had more than 110 points since 2004, and last year, he made only 75 percent of his kicks while going 2-for-10 from 40+ yards. The Eagles offense is always just an injury to Brian Westbrook or Donovan McNabb away from becoming very pedestrian, and with Akers’ talent seemingly diminishing, consider letting someone else take him based on his reputation

Rob Bironas, Tennessee Titans
Bironas burst onto the scene with a Pro Bowl season in 2007. He showed a powerful leg (4-for-5 from 50+, 9-for-10 from 40-49), and benefited from playing in a Titans offense that was the NFL’s worst in the red zone. As a result, he tied for the most attempts in the NFL with 39. He made 35 of those attempts, so he certainly has the accuracy and power to be a top-five kicker this year, but Tennessee’s offense could improve to the point where there are fewer chances for Bironas.

Kris Brown, Houston Texans
Brown isn’t known for having one of the league’s strongest legs, but after 2007 that should change. Brown nailed all five of his attempts from 50-plus yards, including a 57 yarder. He made 25-of-29 field goals in ’07, and his 115 points (14th in the NFL) were his most since 2001. Houston’s offense seems to be improving and Brown is a steady option, so he could very well move his way into being a top-12, starting caliber kicker in 2008.

Brandon Coutu, Seattle Seahawks
The rookie will fight with veteran Olindo Mare, who had a tough, injury-riddled ’07, for the starting job in Seattle. In the same offense last year, Josh Brown, now with St. Louis, had the sixth most points in the league with 127. If Coutu wins the job, he could be a nice contributor as a rookie in a kicker-friendly offense. In college, Coutu was prolific, hitting 51-of-64 attempts despite lingering hamstring issues.

Shaun Suisham, Washington Redskins
In his first full season as a starter, Suisham quietly was tied for fifth in the league with 29 field goals. He connected on 82.9 percent of his kicks and finished 13th in the league with 116 points. Those aren’t bad numbers for a relatively unknown kicker. Washington made big efforts to improve its offense in the offseason, so his chances will only increase in 2008. He has the potential to transform from an unknown into someone’s No. 1 kicker.

ROUNDTABLE SUPERLATIVES

Top Breakout Candidate
Dustin Hockensmith: Anyone’s guess on this one, but I’ll take Jets kicker Mike Nugent. New York has spent big money to improve in all facets of the game, but may still lack enough punch to turn red zone opportunities into touchdowns.

Brant Nelson: Give me Josh Scobee. He’s been up and down since being drafted by the Jags, but he has the talent to rack up some decent points every week.

Anthony Oliva III: I’ll go with Rian Lindell. He’s always been a steady kicker, and in 2007 he made 88.9 percent of his attempts (9th in the NFL), including going 2-for-3 from over 50 yards. The young Bills offense may take a step in the right direction this year, so Lindell should, too.
 
Top Bust Candidate
DH: Mason Crosby performed well last season, but is a candidate to fall off that pace. Between Favre’s (expected) retirement and the blustery conditions at Lambeau Field, there will be fewer good opportunities for him to put points on the board.

BN: While Robbie Gould may be a good kicker, the Chicago Bears offense looks mediocre at best. With no real talent at the QB or WR spots and an unknown in rookie runner Matt Forte, the Bears may struggle to even get in field goal range.

AO: It will be near impossible for Bironas to replicate 2007’s success. He had 133 points despite not scoring over 100 points in either of his previous two seasons. He benefited from Tennessee struggling mightily in the red zone, but they can’t be that bad again this year … or can they?

Waiver Wire Gem
DH: While he doesn’t necessarily have a job entering training camp, rookie Taylor Mehlhaff should win one and excel for the Saints. New Orleans moves the ball with ease and should set Mehlhaff up for success.

BN: The Redskins have had their problems in the kicking game over the past few years, but a strong showing by Shaun Suisham last season seems to have put an end to that. Suisham made some big kicks down the stretch and should hold on to that momentum heading into ‘08. 

AO: Brandon Coutu should beat out Olindo Mare for the starting job in Seattle. The Seahawks drafted him for this reason, and if he starts, he will thrive playing in an offense where the starting kicker has averaged 114.2 points a game the last five years.

Most Fantasy Friendly Offense
DH: Dallas’ high-flying offense should be just as good in 2008, meaning Nick Folk will benefit greatly once again. As a rookie, he converted 24-of-26 kicks from inside 50 yards.

BN: One thing is for sure heading into the season — the Chargers are going to move the ball.  Nate Kaeding’s got the distance, and he’s got the accuracy. Now, if opposing defenses could keep LT out of the endzone, he might get a chance to show it off.

AO: Stephen Gostowski benefits from playing in one of the most dynamic offenses in NFL history. He was second in the NFL in points (137) in ‘07, despite only hitting 21 field goals (tied for 25th).
 
Best Homefield Advantage
DH: Free agent acquisition Josh Brown will benefit from the indoor turf of the Edward Jones Dome. The Rams’ offense should be just good enough to provide him with opportunities to capitalize on the even weather and quality kicking surface.

BN: The Rams’ Josh Brown is a no-brainer here. One of the best legs in the NFL while he kicked in Seattle, Brown gets out of the elements and into the climate controlled dome in St. Louis.

AO: Conventional wisdom says go with a dome player, but for Nate Kaeding, the sunny San Diego weather is just fine. He’s finished no worse than ninth in the league in field goal percentage the last three years, and has more than 110 points every year of his career playing in a potent Charger offense.