3
Aug
2008

Preview and Position Study: Quarterbacks

Posted by Steve Kwan

The 2008 quarterback class will be headlined by familiar names, and there’s nothing to suggest that the top fantasy signal callers will be changing anytime soon. With a historic season from Tom Brady, the continued excellence of Peyton Manning, and the emergence of Tony Romo and Ben Roethlisberger as legitimate fantasy studs, the gap between the top of the class and the middle is as big as ever.

However, that’s not to say that owners who do not take a quarterback in the first four rounds will be starved of options. There are plenty of lower-ranked QBs with a high ceiling, such as Jay Cutler, Marc Bulger, and the newest Manning with a Super Bowl ring on his finger, Eli. They won’t be putting up three TDs every game, but they’re solid and cost-effective.

Among first-year starters, picks such as Aaron Rodgers and JaMarcus Russell come to mind. Rodgers may have a shortcut to success thanks to the gifted Green Bay offense he inherits. On the flip side, QBs with their backs against the wall like Alex Smith and Rex Grossman will have one last chance to prove themselves.

This year, it is imperative that you don’t wait to grab a quality signal caller, especially if you are playing in a large league with more than 12 teams. After the top 10 go, the standard really drops off a cliff. Owners who waited and gambled on Matt Leinart and Vince Young as their starters in ‘07 were left ruing their poor decision-making.

POSITION RANKINGS
Tier 1
1. Tom Brady
2. Peyton Manning
3. Tony Romo
4. Drew Brees
5. Ben Roethlisberger

Tier 2
6. Carson Palmer
7. Matt Hasselbeck
8. Derek Anderson

Tier 3
9. Donovan McNabb
10. Jay Cutler
11. Marc Bulger
12. Eli Manning

Tier 4
13. David Garrard
14. Matt Schaub
15. Philip Rivers
16. Jake Delhomme

Tier 5
17. Jason Campbell
18. John Kitna
19. Kurt Warner
20. Vince Young
FIVE TO WATCH

Ben Roethlisberger, Pittsburgh Steelers
Many experts have said that Big Ben overachieved last season, but with the addition of skill position rookies Rashard Mendenhall and Limas Sweed, it wouldn’t be out of line to suggest that the best is actually yet to come. By now, defenses will have gotten used to Big Ben’s tendencies to throw long, but Mendenhall and Sweed, combined with Hines Ward, Willie Parker and Santonio Holmes, should rack up a multitude of TDs.

Carson Palmer, Cincinnati Bengals
Besides a slight up-tick in yards, Palmer regressed in 2007, and his inconsistent throwing wasn’t helped by the shenanigans of his teammates. But, with Chad Johnson still hanging around and T.J. Houshmandzadeh blossoming into a No. 1 threat in his own right, things can only get better for Palmer. He has oddly slipped down draft boards despite being only 28 years old. He looks to be a great value in the fourth round.

Jay Cutler, Denver Broncos
Cutler seems primed for the breakout season that some experts (most famously ESPN’s Matthew Berry) expected of him last year. His stock is actually lower now than it was going into ‘07, with big-name QBs such as McNabb and Jake Delhomme still being preferred to him in many preseason drafts. In addition to Cutler’s growing poise and decision-making, Brandon Marshall is a star in a much-improved receiving corps. The table has been set for Cutler to succeed.

Eli Manning, New York Giants
Surprisingly, Eli hasn’t received the “Super Bowl Bump” in his draft stock that many previous Super Bowl winners had received. Perhaps owners were holding a grudge against Eli for being below-par during the fantasy playoff stretch of the season. He’s still part of a very productive offense, but the Giants have a big group of RB standouts who will all get touches. Look for a maturing Manning to focus on cutting down his turnovers and being more consistent in 2008.

David Garrard, Jacksonville Jaguars
Garrard will be the unquestioned started in Jacksonville for the first time this year and he’s looking to be a nice value pick in the middle rounds. He’s an accurate thrower and a good scrambler on a team with title aspirations. His stock hasn’t risen into the upper tier of QBs in standard leagues, but he looks to be good value at the back end of a draft. Jerry Porter, Reggie Williams and Troy Williamson form a motley crew of targets for Garrard.

ROUNDTABLE SUPERLATIVES
 
Top Breakout Candidate

Dustin Hockensmith: The new, efficient Eli Manning can easily jump a Carson Palmer or Matt Hasselbeck, so long as his primary weapon, Plaxico Burress, is happy and healthy.

Steve Kwan: Matt Schaub showed a lot of potential as a starter when he was healthy, and his growing rapport with Andre Johnson and Owen Daniels will be something to keep an eye on.

Brant Nelson: This is more of a comeback than a breakout, but people are still sleeping on Jake Delhomme. After spending two years in fantasy purgatory, Delhomme is healthy and has a full arsenal of playmakers.
 
Top Bust Candidate
DH: Philip Rivers’ knee is worrisome, and he’s too much of a headcase to play through the distraction that pain causes. Rivers is inconsistent at best, even when healthy, so he’s on my list of players to avoid this preseason.

SK: Donovan McNabb is aging, feels unwanted in Philadelphia and hasn’t put in a full season of work since 2004. He’s already registered his first nagging injury, and preseason camp isn’t even officially open yet. A ton of owners still love him, but I’m done drinking the kool-aid.

BN: After a breakout 2007 season for Derek Anderson, the Browns QB (and Poo-Dollar extraordinaire) may find that he set the bar too high. An early misstep will certainly bring on chants of “Brady, Brady!” as fans call for last year’s first round pick.
 
Waiver Wire Gem
DH:
This is a make or break year for Tarvaris Jackson, where he either keeps a starting gig or becomes a career backup. He’s got weapons around him, a solid line and a running game that will have opponents looking right past him and at second-year runner Adrian Peterson.

SK: Trent Edwards of the Buffalo Bills has the starting QB job almost sealed up, but despite a talented WR group in Buffalo, only 8% of Yahoo! Fantasy owners see fit to pick him up. Can he succeed where JP Losman repeatedly failed? The price to find out isn’t too high.

BN: Tarvaris Jackson and Jason Campbell are both surrounded by pieces of the QB puzzle: solid lines, All-Pro running backs, and of course down field playmakers. The time is now for both players to show the goods.

Most Fantasy-Friendly Offense
DH:
You can’t go wrong with the offenses that any of our top eight QBs are leading, but I’ll say the Cleveland Browns. Anderson has two huge targets with excellent hands in Braylon Edwards and Kellen Winslow and a new deep threat in Donte Stallworth.

SK: The Pittsburgh Steelers added a potential feature-back in Rashard Mendanhall and a tall red-zone threat in Limas Sweed while losing none of their key skill players. As long as they don’t miss Alan Faneca too much, this offense is going to be something else.

BN: With a solid mix of playmakers (T.O., Witten and Barber) to go along with a pass-happy offensive scheme, the Dallas Cowboys give Romo the keys to the Ferrari, he just needs to drive.

Best Running QB
DH:
Vince Young is a landslide choice here, but Ben Roethlisberger is an underrated runner. Going off the board, Tarvaris Jackson’s legs make him an intriguing choice as a No. 3 QB.

SK: With Michael Vick now involved in other activites, Vince Young is the best running QB by default. Ben Roethlisberger and David Garrard can also make things happen with their feet.

BN: The undisputed champ of this category is currently serving out a prison sentence. The next best thing? Tarvaris Jackson. Vince Young may have the vision, but Jackson has moves and quickness to turn any would-be busted play into a big gain.

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