3
Aug
2008

Preview and Position Study: Tight Ends

Posted by Dustin Hockensmith

Gone are the days where Antonio Gates is the clear cut No. 1 tight end in fantasy. In are the days of more parody at the position, with an influx of superb, athletic pass catchers playing tight end. Gates has been stamped out and cloned to the point where he’s no longer a must-have selection for those who put a premium on tight ends.

Jason Witten and Kellen Winslow emerged as elite options with career seasons in 2007. Neither figures to slow down in ‘08, and both could again challenge Gates for top-scoring tight end honors.

The second grouping of tight ends may end up being just as productive as the first. Dallas Clark comes handcuffed to Peyton Manning, who is consistent and loves to find Clark in the red zone. Chris Cooley promises to do his usual work as a top-five tight end, and Todd Heap could bring huge rewards for a seventh or eighth round draft choice.

There is no need to panic in the early going if the first wave of tight ends passes you by. Even if you miss a piece of the top five, there are exciting options available in the later rounds. Vernon Davis, Alge Crumpler, Jeremy Shockey, Greg Olsen and Benjamin Watson will all come cheaply.

A wise strategy would be to formulate a strong opinion on the bottom tier of starting tight ends, then target your choices in the later rounds. There could be very little difference between Gates and, say, Davis, who enters his first season with offensive guru Mike Martz calling the plays.

POSITION RANKINGS
** Players separated by tiers

1. Antonio Gates, SD
2. Jason Witten, DAL
3. Kellen Winslow, CLE
4. Tony Gonzalez, KC

5. Dallas Clark, DAL
6. Chris Cooley, WAS
7. Todd Heap, BAL

8. Tony Scheffler, DEN
9. Vernon Davis, SF
10. Heath Miller, PIT
11. Alge Crumpler, TEN
12. Benjamin Watson, NE
13. Jeremy Shockey, NYG

14. Donald Lee, GB
15. Greg Olsen, CHI

FIVE TO WATCH

Dallas Clark, Indianapolis Colts
This is literal, as in, watch Clark play anytime the Colts are on television. You’ll see him wide, in motion, across the middle, on the edges, down the seams, everywhere. And with the unique ways that he is used in the Colts offense, there is every reason to believe he’ll be in the same neighborhood as his 11 TD catches last season.

Tony Scheffler, Denver Broncos
Scheffler says his surgically repaired foot is fine, but that will be put to the test when training camp begins. If healthy, he is a decent value in the eighth and ninth rounds, but that’s some gamble to take with plenty of talented choices still on the board. If any news breaks that he’s having troubles with his foot, you’d be wise to bypass him for the comparable options behind him.

Alge Crumpler, Tennessee Titans
Crumpler is a touchdown machine, one of the most consistent scoring tight ends in fantasy. Even with topsy-turvy quarterback play in Atlanta, he still scored 5+ TDs in his last four seasons there. Moving over to Tennessee, he should be a favorite of Vince Young’s in the end zone, and he could give his previous career-high of eight TDs a good run.

Vernon Davis, San Francisco 49ers
Fantasy owners have been burnt by this guy before. And when that happens, lingering hard feelings can open the door for a good value. He’s still the same player that was drafted much earlier last season, but most owners have ill will towards him and assume he’ll struggle once again. That could be the case, but in the later stages of drafts, it is well worth the cost to find out.

Greg Olsen, Chicago Bears
Question marks abound at the quarterback position, something that Olsen has no control over. What he can control is how he develops in his second season and what kind of niche he carves out in the Bears offense. He should play an important role, and he has the same physical gifts as his University of Miami predecessor Jeremy Shockey to make the most of the opportunity.

ROUNDTABLE SUPERLATIVES

Top Breakout Candidate
Dustin Hockensmith:
Greg Olsen is the most talented pass catcher on the Bears’ offense. He should improve his consistency and get plenty of targets from QBs Rex Grossman and/or Kyle Orton.
 
Brant Nelson: Heath Miller is coming off a great year with 47 catches, seven of which went for TDs. With defenses using an extra DB to cover the trio of Ward, Holmes and rookie Limas Sweed, Miller will find more open space across the middle.  
 
Top Bust Candidate
DH:
Lots of people are jumping on board with Denver’s Tony Scheffler, too many for my liking. His draft stock is inflating by the day, and people aren’t concerned enough about his surgically repaired foot.
 
BN: While Dallas Clark is bound to have a solid year with Manning under center, second year WR Anthony Gonzalez figures to see more action and the Colts plan to have Marvin Harrison back in some capacity.  
 
Waiver Wire Gem
DH:
There’s a good chance Cincinnati’s Ben Utecht gets passed over for bigger names in the late rounds. The Indianapolis castoff will never be the focus of opposing defenses and should prove a useful new toy for quarterback Carson Palmer.
 
BN: When first-year quarterback JaMarcus Russell gets hung out to dry by a spotty offensive line, look for him to find fellow 2007 draftee Zach Miller. The big-bodied Miller has good hands and could explode onto the scene in 2008.
 
Most Fantasy-Friendly Offense
DH:
Dallas Clark is constantly put in positions to create matchup nightmares, and Peyton Manning really seeks him out in the red zone. He will prove last season was no fluke.
 
BN: Jason Witten is in a great situation. Not only is he a Pro Bowl caliber player, but he is surrounded by players with the same distinction. With most defenses targeting T.O. and Marion Barber as the big play threats, Witten will be able to get free often and improve on his already impressive stats.
 
Best Red Zone Threat
DH:
Clark led all tight ends with 11 TD catches last season, but San Diego’s Antonio Gates is still the man to beat in this category. Despite a bad toe and inconsistent play from QB Philip Rivers, Gates still managed nine scores in ‘07.
 
BN: If he is able to stay off the trainer’s table, Vernon Davis is my pick here. Davis is a freakish athlete who creates nightmare matchups and can take it all the way regardless of field position.  A little more Davis could be just what QB Alex Smith needs to save his job.

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