For the fourth straight week, I thought I had a handle on the NFL.

Broncos ae great, Chiefs are terrible. Cowboys are unbeatable at home. Rams are not competitive. Brett Favre will never learn the Jets offense in time to make big fantasy contributions. Matt Schaub will be benched by Week 5. Lane Kiffin will be out of a job any day now.

None of those things happened this week, though Kiffin could be canned by Raiders owner Al Davis at any moment. The point is, no assumptions are fool proof in the National Football League, which makes predicting fantasy football results a nearly impossible feat, too.

How many people panicked when Schaub threw one touchdown pass and five interceptions in two games? And how many were kicking themselves for drafting Chiefs running back Larry Johnson in the second round? Not everything plays out how it could or should, and sadly, we don’t often come to that realization until it’s a day too late.

While some events, like Ronnie Brown’s five-touchdown performance in Week 3, will never cease to surprise us, there is a recipe for not getting caught off guard. Here are three quick steps.

1.) Have faith in your talent.
Not to the point of stubbornness, but if you invested a high draft pick on a player, you have to live and die with his results. Be strong, be patient and be optimistic, even for those going through the worst of times.

2.) Forget last week’s results.
Use Johnson as an example again. After a bad loss to the Raiders, in which he carried 12 times for 22 yards, Johnson owners could have stashed him away on the bench and watched a 121-yard effort in Week 4 waste away. He backed that up with 198 yards and two scores in Kansas City’s 33-19 win over Denver.

3.) Don’t get too cute with matchups.
There are players who should be started, regardless of matchups that look impossible on paper. The fantasy football gods have a way of punishing owners who bench a Steven Jackson or a Joseph Addai. The good ones always get it done; don’t let suspect bench players determine a win or loss in their place.

For the waiver wire shopper …

I still like Brady Quinn to stake his claim to the Browns starting quarterback job. Derek Anderson survived this week because Cleveland beat a winless Bengals team, but he was unimpressive in throwing for just 138 yards.

Speaking of backups, Marc Bulger stands a good chance of winning the Rams job back under interim coach Jim Haslett. Who knows, if St. Louis finds a little more positive energy after the Scott Linehan firing, Bulger could be a worthwhile fantasy QB again.

Oakland Raiders running back Michael Bush is fading quickly from league waiver wires, but demands a look, at least as a goal-line option. If Darren McFadden remains bogged down with his toe injury, Bush becomes doubly valuable.

Deuce McAllister looked plenty healthy this week, didn’t he? The Saints were extremely cautious in deploying him in short-yardage situations, but his stock quickly soared with 20 carries, 74 yards and a touchdown against San Francisco.

With Schaub finding a rhythm against Jacksonville and lots and lots of attention being paid to star wideout Andre Johnson, Kevin Walter had himself a day. Walter’s size and possession abilities make him a good bet for TDs and consistent targets.

Speaking of big possession receivers, Carolina’s Muhsin Muhammad fits into the Panthers offense perfectly as a complement to deep threat Steve Smith. He had eight catches for 147 yards and a touchdown in Week 4.

Anquan Boldin will be a question mark for Week 5 after sustaining a helmet-to-helmet hit in the fourth quarter against the Jets. If he can’t go, third-year wideout Steve Breaston, who caught nine passes for 122 yards Sunday, is worth an immediate add.

Four talented players entered the fray of could-be starting fantasy tight ends in New York’s Dustin Keller, Minnesota’s Visanthe Shiancoe, Chicago’s Greg Olsen and Oakland’s Zach Miller. All four have big potential that could be surfacing.

I especially like Miller, as he is leaps and bounds ahead of any other Oakland pass catcher, in terms of quarterback JaMarcus Russell’s favorites.