Fantasy football is truly a humbling pastime. Just when you think you’ve mastered your draft and are set up to dominate your league, Bernard Pollard lands on Tom Brady’s leg and your chances are shot. And just after you go unbeaten during the regular season, fantasy playoffs come and a team that limped in with a .500 record knocks you off. You never know what will happen, but you can always make good, educated guesses.

It’s important to consider the context in which things occur and notice the bigger trends behind a player’s week-by-week performance.

Start with the Brady situation, where Matt Cassel started in his place and led the Patriots to a 19-10 win over their division rival New York Jets. How did the team’s passing game change? Who benefited? Did they run more? Keep your eyes on these big picture developments, and fewer things will come as surprises.

We’ve got more lessons for you, in no particular order, and we’ll follow it up with a quick “fun with numbers” section that points out some interesting Week 2 stats.

Lessons from Week 2

Matt Cassel will be good, not great, as the New England Patriots quarterback post-Tom Brady, and the team’s change to quick, short passes will have the most benefit to Wes Welker. The group won’t be as explosive, so kicker Stephen Gostkowski’s stock goes up.

For the first time in years, Chargers running back LaDainian Tomlinson will not be the consensus No. 1 pick in 2009 fantasy drafts. He’ll share that honor with Minnesota’s Adrian Peterson.

Fantasy owners should be glad that Kurt Warner won Arizona’s starting quarterback job in the preseason. He had a perfect passer rating (158.3) in shredding Miami for 361 yards and three touchdowns.

The Buffalo Bills are a legitimate playoff contender, and quarterback Trent Edwards is well worth a roster spot in fantasy leagues.

Jay Cutler is the real deal, and he has a playbook that is tilted in his favor. Broncos coach Mike Shanahan called 50 passing plays, compared to 24 runs, in Denver’s 39-38 win over San Diego.

Tarvaris Jackson’s days as a starting quarterback are numbered. Backup Gus Frerotte would be worth a speculative pick in 2-QB leagues.

The running back committees in New England and Denver will be maddening the entire season. Biggest losers in the deals are starters Laurence Maroney and Selvin Young.

Nevermind the Seahawks’ offensive troubles, it is their overhyped, fool’s gold defense that has let more fantasy owners down the last two weeks. Allowing 33 points to visiting San Francisco is inexcusable.

Only Darren McFadden’s big day (19-164, TD) saved the ugliness in Oakland’s 23-8 win over Kansas City. It’s worth noting that Justin Fargas left that one early, paving the way for McFadden’s breakout performance.

Rams running back Steven Jackson is down, but he’s not out. There will be big days in the future, starting next week in Seattle, and he has a favorable schedule for the fantasy playoffs. He can still make good on a first round draft choice.

Clinton Portis is one of the few true “feature” backs left in the NFL. Sure, Ladell Betts will give him an occasional breather, but Portis is a lock for 20+ carries per game - a nice luxury for fantasy teams.

Ryan Grant is garnering serious “bust” consideration. Slowed by a sore hamstring, Grant laid an egg with 15 carries for 20 yards against a Lions defense that was torched by Atlanta’s Michael Turner for 220 yards in Week 1.

Warrick Dunn is a major hindrance on Earnest Graham’s productivity. After coach Jon Gruden proclaimed that Graham would carry a heavier load this week, he got just 15 carries to Dunn’s 12 in Tampa Bay’s 24-9 win over Atlanta.

Brandon Marshall is the second coming of Terrell Owens. In his debut following a one-game suspension, Marshall had 18 catches for 166 yards and a touchdown. He is big, strong and fast and benefits from the emergence of QB Cutler.

Fun with numbers

1 - Number of times in 16 career games that Bills running back Marshawn Lynch has not rushed for at least 60 yards. He ran for 59 yards on Sunday at Jacksonville.

2 - Down 38-37 after scoring a touchdown with 24 seconds remaining, Denver coach Mike Shanahan successfully went for a two-point conversion and a win over San Diego.

3 - Number of rushing touchdowns Michael Pittman has scored in two games, tied for most in the NFL heading into Monday night’s Cowboys-Eagles game.

4 - Jay Cutler’s touchdown passes versus San Diego, three of which came in a 24-point second quarter.

5 - Washington’s margin of victory in a 29-24 comeback win over New Orleans. The Redskins scored two touchdowns in the final 5:59 to win their first game of the season.

6 - Number of passes JaMarcus Russell completed in going 6-for-17 for just 55 yards in Oakland’s 23-8 win over Kansas City.

7 - Different wide receivers to catch passes from Green Bay quarterback Aaron Rodgers, including TDs to Donald Driver, Jordy Nelson and James Jones.

8 - Points mustered by a stagnant Kansas City Chiefs offense. The score came on a connection from backup QB Tyler Thigpen to tight end Tony Gonzalez in the fourth quarter.

9 - Average round in which Panthers running back Jonathan Stewart was selected in fantasy drafts. He was well worth it on Sunday, rushing 14 times for 77 yards and two scores.

10 - The week that Baltimore and Houston will play a game postponed because of damage caused by Hurricane Ike.