23
Sep
2008

Week 4 Matchups: The Good, Bad and Ugly

Posted by Anthony Oliva III

Last week we told you to expect big days from players like RB Julius Jones, RB Fred Taylor, RB Frank Gore and TE Jeremy Shockey and they all rewarded their owners. We also told you to lessen your expectations or sit players like RB Earnest Graham, RB Ryan Grant, RB Jonathan Stewart, WR DeSean Jackson and the Packers defense and all these players had below average games. How did we know this you ask? Playing the matchups.

Here is a look at some of the most intriguing Week 3 matchups. It’s all about starting quality players when they have favorable matchups, and the most savvy owners know when it’s time to take a chance on lesser players facing softer defenses. Take the first step here – in the third edition of The Good, Bad and Ugly.

THE GOOD:
Kansas City WR Dwayne Bowe vs. Denver

Denver has been involved in shootout after shootout this year and that always spells success for fantasy receivers. Bowe, Kansas City’s best WR option, should benefit from this. Bowe has 15 catches for 182 yards and two TDs so far this year, and this should be a game where he pads those stats. The Broncos have surrendered an NFL-high 947 passing yards to go along with six TDs through the air. Keep Bowe active.

Buffalo D/ST vs. St. Louis
Buffalo has been one of the most productive defensive units so far this year and this week will be no different. The Bills get the hapless Rams and 38-year-old QB Trent Green, who is replacing ineffective starter Marc Bulger. The Rams offensive line has been in shambles and has given up 11 sacks, and the team’s offensive futility has only been rivaled by the Browns. Green won’t be the savior for this offense, so the Bills are a highly recommended start.

Buffalo WR Lee Evans vs. St. Louis
Evans has four catches in each of the first three weeks, but he has been a big-play threat while averaging 20.3 yards per catch (sixth in the NFL). This bodes well for him since the Rams are prone to giving up the big play: no team has given up more yards per attempt (9.61) or passing TDs (7) this season. QBs playing against the Rams have a league-high 123.6 QB rating, and Trent Edwards should feast on this secondary, while hooking up with Evans for a few big plays.

Kansas City TE Tony Gonzalez vs. Denver
Despite playing in a lackluster offense, Gonzalez has managed 15 catches for 129 yards and a TD in the first three weeks. QB Tyler Thigpen looked his way a lot in Week 3 and if they can connect more, Gonzalez can solidify himself as an elite tight end. Playing against a Denver team that is allowing a league-high 315.7 yards per game will be a nice matchup for Gonzalez, who can once again look the Gonzalez of old.

Tampa Bay RB Earnest Graham vs. Green Bay
Graham was shut down in Week 3, held to only 16 yards, but he should get back on track this week. The Packers are giving up a league-high 5.7 yards per carry, they allowed Dallas to abuse them for 217 yards on the ground last week. Graham was averaging 103.5 yards a game the first two weeks, and he should put up similar numbers this week, while possibly getting in the end zone.

Buffalo RB Marshawn Lynch vs. St. Louis
Lynch has been a stud so far this year amassing four TDs and 275 total yards in the first three games. He is always a must-start, but this week he could be a huge factor in leading your team to a victory. The Rams are giving up 184.3 yards per game on the ground along with two TDs per game. If you are playing against Lynch this week, you can start getting frustrated now.

Philadelphia QB Donovan McNabb vs. Chicago
McNabb has looked sharp so far and the Chicago secondary has not. The Bears have surrendered nearly 250 passing yards per game and were exposed by Brian Griese and the Bucs for 407 yards and two TDs on a whopping 67 attempts. McNabb won’t throw it that much, but he has been very efficient and is fourth in the league with 838 yards in the air. If RB Brian Westbrook is hobbled by an ankle injury, the Eagles may rely even more on McNabb, who will take full advantage of the opportunities.

Cincinnati RB Chris Perry vs. Cleveland
Perry has already been a decent option, and has shown improvement in each of the last two weeks with scores against the Titans and Giants. He should only continue to improve as he faces a Cleveland defense that has already given up 435 rushing yards and six rushing TDs this season. If Perry and the Bengals continue to make small strides, Perry will be a very usable option against the Browns.

San Diego QB Philip Rivers vs. Oakland
Despite the 1-2 record, Rivers has been a dynamic fantasy QB so far with three TDs in each of the first three weeks. He leads the league in that category and in passer rating. His numbers should only continue to grow against the Raiders, who are giving up 232.2 yards per game in the air (26th in the NFL). Rivers is a must-start, and expect him to lead San Diego and your fantasy team with a huge day in Week 4.

Green Bay QB Aaron Rodgers vs. Tampa Bay
The Packers couldn’t have asked for much more from Rodgers the first three weeks. He is fifth in the NFL with 796 yards passing while maintaining a 102.9 passer rating. Those stats might improve this week by playing a suspect Tampa Bay passing defense that has allowed nearly 240 yards a game in the air and just let Kyle Orton throw for 268 yards and two scores. Rodgers’ numbers should surpass Orton’s, making him a good starting option.

THE BAD:
WR Bernard Berrian vs. Tennessee

Having Gus Frerotte at QB should actually improve Berrian’s stock – you just might not feel the effects this week. The Titans defense is third in league giving up only 151.3 passing yards a game and is second in the league allowing just 5.42 yards per attempt. Berrian had three catches for a season-high 79 yards last week, but modest numbers at best should be expected in this one. Don’t give up on him, though, brighter days are on the horizon.

Carolina QB Jake Delhomme vs. Atlanta

Despite being among the worst run defenses in the league, the Falcons have been formidable against the pass, giving up only 5.5 yards per attempt (fourth in the NFL) and allowing only 170 passing yards per game. Delhomme, aided by the return of No. 1 WR Steve Smith, has been average so far and has only thrown one TD. With the tough matchup, we don’t recommend banking on a breakout in Week 4.

Chicago RB Matt Forte vs. Philadelphia
Forte continued to impress last week, this time amassing 155 total yards and a TD in Chicago’s overtime loss to Tampa Bay. His hot start may come to an end this week against the terrorizing Eagles defense, giving up only 45.7 rushing yards a game and 2.4 yards per carry, both tops in the NFL. The Eagles held Willie Parker to only 20 yards on 13 carries in Week 3 after he had racked up 243 yards the first two weeks.

Green Bay D vs. Tampa Bay
You might be surprised to know that Tampa Bay’s 372.2 yards per game actually rank seventh in the league. The Bucs have a balanced attack, despite throwing it 67 times last week, and they will put the Packers defense to the test in Tampa.  The loss of CB Al Harris will really hurt Green Bay, and the Bucs should be successful moving the ball. If you have a better option, go in that direction.

Pittsburgh WR Santonio Holmes vs. Baltimore
Holmes had a lot of promise coming into 2008, but he has yet to fulfill those expectations with just 10 catches, 145 yards and one TD. Against the Ravens, I would expect similar average numbers. The Ravens defense has been stifling against the pass (see Ben Roethlisberger below), and with Parker out, the Steelers may unfortunately become one dimensional. Holmes did perform well against the Ravens last year, but this game is shaping up to be a much different story.

St. Louis WR Torry Holt vs. Buffalo

The 0-3 Rams are a far cry from the Greatest Show on Turf, and Holt is one of the casualties of their struggles. He has still managed 11 catches for 122 yards and a TD in the first three weeks, but that’s not enough production for someone of Holt’s caliber. He may be too talented to sit, but going against an undefeated Bills team that’s giving up only 153.7 yards per game in the air, he is not a great bet to turn it around. Your patience is probably running thin with Holt, but you may need to wait one more week, especially since 38-year-old Trent Green steps in for Marc Bulger at QB this week.

Tennessee RB Chris Johnson vs. Minnesota
Running backs facing Minnesota will be common place on this list. The Vikes are giving up only 70.3 yards a game on 3.2 yards per carry this year. Johnson has been impressive with 276 yards rushing throughout the year, but has only one TD, and that came through the air. The yards may not be so easy to come by this week, and since LenDale White is getting the goal-line carries, Johnson deserves serious bench consideration.

Baltimore RB Willis McGahee vs. Pittsburgh

McGahee performed respectably in his first action of the year with 64 yards on 15 carries last week against Cleveland. The matchup is tougher this week against an impenetrable Pittsburgh defense that is giving up only 64.3 rushing yards per game and 2.8 yards per carry. Baltimore’s lack of a passing game will have the Steelers focusing on McGahee and he will find little open space. Also, FB Le’Ron McClain seems to be getting the goal-line touches. Since there seems to be little shot at yards or touchdowns, McGahee should benched, if you can afford to do so.

Pittsburgh QB Ben Roethlisberger vs. Baltimore
Big Ben is banged up and the matchup with the Ravens doesn’t help matters. In their first two games, the Ravens have allowed opposing teams to only throw for 180 yards – combined – which is by far the lowest average yards per game in the league. They have four picks, seven sacks, and opposing QBs have a dreadful 26.6 QB rating against the Ravens. With his injury and tough matchup, look for other options at QB


Denver TE Tony Scheffler vs. Kansas City
It may be hard to sit a TE already with 11 catches for 168 yards and two TDs in one of the league’s most explosive offenses, but this may be the week. The Chiefs, although they have not played a team of Denver’s caliber yet, have been stingy against the pass. They have allowed a league-low 38 completions (for teams that have played three games) and of the 38, only five went to tight ends. You probably drafted Scheffler in later rounds, so if you have another starting-worthy TE, consider him.

THE UGLY:
Cleveland at Cincinnati

For the second straight week, the Browns are a part of The Ugly. This time they are joined by the Bengals, who also sit at 0-3. I wonder if Ohio fans would rather watch the Reds play the Indians with no playoff implications, or this game (which by the end of the year is sure to have no playoff implications.)

The Browns have been dreadful disappointments from all aspects, and now there is talk that Brady Quinn could replace Derek Anderson. That’s right, last year’s Pro Bowl QB is in danger of losing his job to someone who hasn’t started a NFL game – that’s how bad he, and the Browns offense, has looked.

The Bengals finally showed some signs of life last week, but they still managed to blow the game against the Giants. Palmer had his first TD pass of the season and T.J. Houshmandzadeh broke out of a slump with a 12-catch, 146-yard, one-TD day. Still no word from Ocho Cinco.

To add to their frustrations, outcast Rudi Johnson had a big game for the Lions last week with 131 total yards and a TD.

Anyway, what makes this game Ugly is that collectively these two offenses have shown just about nothing resembling effectiveness. The two teams are averaging a combined 432.7 yards a game, and that is LESS than what Dallas averages (440) a game by itself. As far as points go, the two teams have combined for just 66 points. That would put them, together, as the as the 16th highest scoring team league

Sure, neither defense is any good so their offenses may benefit, but the numbers don’t lie. If you came looking for offense you came to the wrong place. Ohio sports fans, tune into the Reds and Indians.

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