24
Sep
2008

Week 4 Rookie Rankings

Posted by Brian Lauer

Welcome to the first edition of our weekly rookie rankings, where Oakland’s Darren McFadden and Chicago’s Matt Forte lead a group of 20 fantasy stars and would-be producers.

Just as the NFL Draft in April told us when no wide receivers were taken in the first round, this year’s group of fantasy wideouts is pretty thin. Only two receivers - Denver’s Eddie Royal and Philadelphia’s DeSean Jackson - are worthy of starter status, but both have gone well beyond expectations.

As thin as the class of wide receivers has been, the group of running backs has been equally deep, from headliner McFadden to surprise Steve Slaton. Two rookies are starting at quarterback, which could prove to be big payoffs for their franchises, but do little for fantasy teams. Traditionally the hardest position to play in professional sports, it could be a matter of years until Atlanta’s Matt Ryan and Baltimore’s Joe Flacco are worthy fantasy options.

To touch on one more point about rookie running backs, timeshares are a major problem. Really, this is a league-wide issue, but first-year players are usually the backs on the light end of the work load. Talented backs Felix Jones and Chris Johnson are pleasant surprises for their teams, but are non-factors at the goal-line. Yardage can only take a fantasy owner so far; at some point, we need some touchdown production.

Running backs occupy the top six spots on our first edition of NFL rookie rankings, which are exclusively a measure of fantasy value. Current production is weighted heavily, but potential to contribute also factors into the mix.

The top 20 rookies:

Rk Player, Team Pos Notes
1. Darren McFadden, OAK RB Enough touches to make use of great athletic ability
2. Matt Forte, CHI RB Workhorse has turned NFL-best 73 carries into 304 yds
3. Felix Jones, DAL RB Big play potential, either from backfield or in return game
4. Jonathan Stewart, CAR RB Leads rookie RBs with 3 TDs, could land starting job
5. Chris Johnson, TEN RB Racking up yardage, but only TD came on reception
6. Steve Slaton, HOU RB Averaging nearly 80 ypg as leader of depleted backfield
7. DeSean Jackson, PHI WR Leads rookie WRs, ranks 8th in NFL with 256 yards
8. Eddie Royal, DEN WR Big splash in debut, but turning into DEN’s No. 3 WR
9. Tim Hightower, ARI RB Running and catching as goal-line vulture to James
10. Kevin Smith, DET RB Emergence of Rudi Johnson a direct threat to his job
11. Rashard Mendenhall, PIT RB Tough 1st start for injured Parker; MNF vs. Ravens
12. John Carlson, SEA TE Plenty of targets until ‘Hawks WRs get healthy
13. Matt Ryan, ATL QB Looked good so far, will have ups and downs
14. Ray Rice, BAL RB Ravens love his game, just doesn’t translate to fantasy
15. Dustin Keller, NYJ TE Has 5 catches, 1 TD; could be a force in 2nd half
16. Joe Flacco, BAL RB First TD pass on horizon, just not this week vs. PIT
17. Jamaal Charles, KC RB Next in line, should LJ get grumpy or injured
18. Dan Carpenter, MIA K Sure, is a kicker, but ranks third in rookie scoring
19. Devin Thomas, WAS WR Will contribute, but 4th option in talented ‘Skins attack
20. James Hardy, BUF WR Waiting for big target (6-7, 220) to step up for 3-0 Bills

Comments

  1. Nicely stated BTL!

     
  2. I agree BTL!

     
  3. Excellent article, look forward to reading more analysis. Keep up the good work.

     

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