Oct
“Flux” is a positive term in fantasy football. Positions or situations that remain unsettled leave opportunities for less heralded players to make contributions. Of course, who’s getting chances and what they’ll do with them are two things that will challenge owners on the waiver wire each week.
The modern NFL, with team and league-mandated suspensions being handed down, has even more challenges. Is Chiefs running back Larry Johnson going to be suspended this week? Are either Kolby Smith or Jamaal Charles worth pickups in his place?
Injury information is also harder than ever to find, as gametime decisions become more common. Willie Parker and Sammy Morris are this week’s examples, leaving the status of Mewelde Moore, BenJarvus Green-Ellis and Kevin Faulk up in the air. A knee injury to Reggie Bush has given more value to Deuce McAllister in the Saints backfield, but will either Pierre Thomas or Aaron Stecker become viable fantasy options?
Other parts of the “flux” scenario are jobs that shift and change without a major injury or suspension.
The Cincinnati Bengals already altered their backfield, demoting starter Chris Perry in favor of free agent acquisition Cedric Benson. The Texans’ situation isn’t as cut and dry, but veteran Ahman Green has a chance to rain on the Steve Slaton parade by grabbing a large share of carries. And when Denver rookie Ryan Torain returns from an elbow injury, he could push new starter Michael Pittman for carries.
Below are profiles of our top quarterback, running back and wide receiver free agents. In order to make the list, a player must enter this week available in at least 50 percent of ESPN.com leagues. Some notable players worth immediate consideration, but just missed our availability cut line: Patriots QB Matt Cassel, Falcons QB Matt Ryan, Colts RB Dominic Rhodes, Raiders RB Justin Fargas, Bears WR Devin Hester, Cardinals WR Steve Breaston and Ravens WR Derrick Mason.
QUARTERBACKS
Jeff Garcia, Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Status: Playing with high energy, keeping starting job
Key Stats: Season-high 310 yards, 1 TD, 0 INTs in Week 7
What to Watch For: Continued efficiency with the football
Other Notes: Cut from the same cloth as Jags quarterback David Garrard … both are mobile QBs who put an emphasis on protecting the football … rarely a candidate to throw multiple TD passes, he also won’t kill stat lines with high turnover counts … next five matchups come against weak pass defenses
Bottom Line: Fringe starter to be used on a matchup basis
Gus Frerotte, Minnesota Vikings
Status: Offering surprisingly acceptable production
Key Stats: Has 200+ yards passing in all 5 starts
What to Watch For: More scoring; has 5 TDs and 7 INTs
Other Notes: Even with big yardage totals, Vikings offense has been stagnant … real-life success will be measured in wins and losses … Week 7 served as an example of what can happen when Minnesota is forced to air it out … Frerotte can implode when the offense becomes one-dimensional … he threw 4 INTs in a 48-41 loss to Chicago
Bottom Line: Consistent, safe to to use in event of injury or bye
Marc Bulger, St. Louis Rams
Status: Back in the saddle as Rams starting QB
Key Stats: Has yet to pass for 200 yards in a game
What to Watch For: New energy from lifeless Rams offense
Other Notes: Gets second chance at starting job after coach Scott Linehan was fired and replaced by Jim Haslett … change in coaches was best thing for Rams offense and for Bulger, who was named starter for the rest of ‘08 … modest 173 yards and 1 TD were his best numbers of a dismal season
Bottom Line: Wait and see, must produce better stat lines
Dan Orlovsky, Detroit Lions
Status: Staking claim to start the rest of ‘08
Key Stats: Has 2 TD passes and 0 INTs in 2 starts
What to Watch For: Any glimour of hope in Detroit
Other Notes: Has decent weapons around him, even with Roy Williams’ trade to Dallas … word of caution: faces stout defenses in WAS, CHI, JAC, CAR, TB and TEN in next 6 weeks … must keep performing to hold off new backup Drew Stanton … has gotten an audition to start after Jon Kitna was placed on the injured reserve
Bottom Line: Speculative pickup, not recommended to start
RUNNING BACKS
BenJarvus Green-Ellis, New England Patriots
Status: Getting attention after MNF performance
Key Stats: 13 carries for 65 yards, TD in win over Denver
What to Watch For: Morris’ knee, how he fits into new Pats RB mix
Other Notes: Was signed from New England’s practice squad last week … filled in nicely for Sammy Morris, who left the Patriots’ Week 7 win in the second quarter with a knee injury … is a darkhorse to get more touches, especially if Morris misses more time
Bottom Line: Should be added only if Morris is unavailable this week
Kolby Smith, Kansas City Chiefs
Status: On Larry Johnson suspension watch
Key Stats: Just 10 carries and 20 yards in Week 7 start
What to Watch For: LJ’s status with the team and NFL office
Other Notes: Was good, not great, in fill-in duties for Johnson last season … rushed for 407 yards in 8 games … not a big play threat; has never broken a 20+ yard run … rookie Jamaal Charles is a threat, but Smith received 10 carries to his 3 in Week 7
Bottom Line: A reach to fill a flex spot; must monitor LJ’s status
Cedric Benson, Cincinnati Bengals
Status: New starter in Cincinnati
Key Stats: 14 carries for 52 yards in 1st start
What to Watch For: How he fares in fantasy-friendly matchups
Other Notes: Took over for starter Chris Perry, who struggled with consistency and turnovers … managed 52 yards vs. a tough Titans defense … next faces a soft Houston run defense in Week 8, but has a terrible slate after the team’s Week 10 bye
Bottom Line: Excellent play this week, has flex potential in future weeks
Ahman Green, Houston Texans
Status: Back in action … but for how long?
Key Stats: Scored first TD of the season in Week 7
What to Watch For: Split in carries with rookie Slaton
Other Notes: An annual injury concern … Slaton is running well as the starter, for now, but has durability issues of his own … Green can easily grab a 50 percent share of the workload, maybe more, if he stays healthy
Bottom Line: Good choice as No. 4 RB and handcuff for Steve Slaton
Mewelde Moore, Pittsburgh Steelers
Status: Coming off 3-TD day in start vs. Cincinnati
Key Stats: Has 219 yards in 2 games as Willie Parker’s replacement
What to Watch For: How his role changes if/when Parker returns to lineup
Other Notes: Biggest surprise of Week 7 has earned the trust of coach Mike Tomlin … will likely be relegated to third-down duties when Parker is fully healthy
Bottom Line: Worth an add if Parker (knee) is forced to sit out again
Leon Washington, New York Jets
Status: Facing league’s worst run defense in Week 8
Key Stats: Has at least 2 catches in all 6 games
What to Watch For: Big days from both him and Thomas Jones vs. KC
Other Notes: Adds possibility for return touchdowns to the mix … look at the way Tennessee’s duo of Chris Johnson and LenDale White torched the Chiefs as a good sign for Jones and Washington … friendly matchup aside, only value comes as handcuff to Jones
Bottom Line: A sleeper flex play this week vs. Kansas City
Kevin Faulk, New England Patriots
Status: Seeing heavier workload, if Sammy Morris can’t go
Key Stats: Averaging 6.8 ypc over the last 3 weeks
What to Watch For: Consistent touches with Pats RBs nursing injuries
Other Notes: Each Patriots running back plays a different role … Faulk’s is generally as a third-down back and pass catcher, so big scoring efforts are exception to the rule … is a viable bye week option in PPR leagues, especially with RBs Laurence Maroney and LaMont Jordan questionable
Bottom Line: Speculative pickup, based on status of Morris’ knee injury
Ryan Torain, Denver Broncos
Status: On the mend from preseason elbow injury
Key Stats: Yet to play in an NFL game
What to Watch For: State of Denver’s backfield upon his return
Other Notes: Coach Mike Shanahan loves what he can do, though, so know the name … was in the mix to start before dislocating his elbow in training camp … has some work to do to overtake Selvin Young, Michael Pittman and/or Andre Hall on the depth chart
Bottom Line: A sleeper flex play this week vs. Kansas City
WIDE RECEIVERS
Javon Walker, Oakland Raiders
Status: Starting to earn his big money?
Key Stats: Doubled season catch total with 5 in Week 7
What to Watch For: Any signs of consistency
Other Notes: May be finally hitting stride after a troubled offseason … isn’t helped by QB JaMarcus Russell’s youth and inability to work through progressions … possible that a coaching change has sparked Walker and the Raiders
Bottom Line: Has done it before; worth an add in all formats
Antonio Bryant, Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Status: Sporadically producing big results
Key Stats: Had 115 yards, scored 1st TD in Week 7
What to Watch For: Fewer ups and downs in production
Other Notes: Is a hit-or-miss play that can either help or seriously hinder your chances of winning a matchup … QB Jeff Garcia is hot right now, which benefits Bryant, the Bucs’ No. 1 wideout
Bottom Line: Can cause headaches, but is worth an add in 10 and 12 team leagues
Malcolm Floyd, San Diego Chargers
Status: Doing big things filling in for Chris Chambers
Key Stats: 140 receiving yards, 2 TDs in 2 spot starts
What to Watch For: Chambers’ health, where Floyd fits into mix
Other Notes: Value is almost directly tied to Chambers’ sore ankle … if Chambers is forced to miss any more time, Floyd would be a viable fantasy producer … is a big guy with good hands, which bodes well for red zone looks … may carve out a niche in the offense, even after Chambers returns
Bottom Line: An upside pick; most appropriate for 12 team leagues
Mike Furrey, Detroit Lions
Status: Gaining the most from Roy Williams trade
Key Stats: Had just 52 yards receiving before 89-yard Week 7
What to Watch For: More evidence that Orlovsky will keep finding him
Other Notes: Burst onto the fantasy scene with 98 catches for 1,086 yards in 2006 … fell off last season, now is without offensive coordinator Mike Martz and former QB Jon Kitna in ‘08 … new QB Orlovsky may be using him as a reliable safety net, but stay tuned to Week 8 results
Bottom Line: Worth immediate add in PPR leagues; wait and see in standard leagues
Kevin Curtis, Philadelphia Eagles
Status: Nearing return from sports hernia surgery
Key Stats: 1,110 yards, 6 TDs in ‘07
What to Watch For: Where he fits in with Reggie Brown, DeSean Jackson
Other Notes: Still listed as questionable for Week 8 … prior to this season, hadn’t missed a game since 2004 … likely to leapfrog Jackson on depth chart and send the rookie into a reserve role … had at least 5 catches in 9 of his last 12 games in ‘07
Bottom Line: Has impact potential; worth an add in all leagues
Greg Camarillo, Miami Dolphins
Status: Emerging as a Chad Pennington favorite
Key Stats: 24 catches for 300 yards, TD over last 5 games
What to Watch For: His place in the red zone pecking order
Other Notes: An intriguing option … is a slick, crafty receiver who does a nice job finding holes in coverage … has been consistent with at least 4 catches in each of his last 5 games … emerged at the end of ‘07 with 2 touchdowns in Miami’s last 3 games
Bottom Line: Worth an add in all 10 and 12 team leagues
Donnie Avery, St. Louis Rams
Status: Rising up Rams’ WR ranks
Key Stats: Has 138 yards receiving, TD in last 2 weeks
What to Watch For: Improvement in Rams’ passing game
Other Notes: Rookie was the first WR taken in the 2008 draft … first career receiving TD came three weeks after scoring his first career TD, a 37-yard run vs. Buffalo … possible heir apparent to Torry Holt, who has nearly an identical build to Avery
Bottom Line: Worth an add in all 10 and 12 team leagues

