Nov
With the Thursday night game come and gone, I won’t be that guy who said he had the Broncos. In fact I was leaning toward taking the Browns and giving up the 3 points. Well, at least that is one loss that won’t count against me. The same can not be said about the 8 losses I tallied last week. At 57-69-4 on the year, we’ve got seven weeks to turn things around… So who is with me??? Seriously?? No one?
Kansas City Chiefs at San Diego Chargers (-14.5)
The Chiefs have got to be completely spent. After opening up a 24-3 lead on Tampa Bay, K.C. gave up the lead and eventually lost in OT. One bright spot was RB Jamaal Charles who rumbled for 106 yards against that stingy Bucs D. The Chiefs will need more of the same from the rookie back having perhaps seen the last of Larry Johnson.
The Chargers are off to a disappointing 3-5 start. That being said, they are only one game off the pace in a miserable AFC West. After another poor defensive showing in London, San Diego parted ways with their defensive coordinator and are now praying Ron Rivera can get the job done. Otherwise, more heads could roll.
Pick: San Diego Chargers -14.5
Carolina Panthers (-8.5) at Oakland Raiders
The Comeback Kids were at it again last week, as the Panthers overcame a 17-3 deficit to beat the Cardinals. QB Jake Delhomme has been spectacular this year and his favorite target, WR Steve Smith, is looking for his fourth consecutive 100-yard receiving day, a feat he has only accomplished once in his eight-year career.
In a moment of clarity, Al Davis decided he would rather throw away millions of dollars than have the cancer known as DeAngelo Hall on his team. While this was probably the sanest move Oakland has made in years, it doesn’t make them any better on the field. On offense, it sounds like WR Javon Walker will share the same fate, becoming a scape goat for a unit that managed only 77 total yards last week versus the Falcons.
Pick: Carolina Panthers -8.5
Seattle Seahawks at Miami Dolphins (-9.5)
On the first offensive play of the game against the Eagles, Seattle went 90 yards for a touchdown. The Seahawks probably would have savored it more if they would have known that no more offense was in their futures. Take away those 15 seconds of the game, and Seattle managed no points and only 143 yards, most of which came in garbage time. Ouch.
The Dolphins went into Mile High Stadium and beat the Broncos last week. Not exactly a daunting task these days, but a nice win nonetheless. Chad Pennington and Greg Camarillo are clicking and have teamed up as one of the most unlikely power duos in the NFL. Pennington has averaged 293 yards over his last four, while Camarillo is coming off a career-high 11 catches for 109 yards.
Pick: Seattle Seahawks +9.5
Jacksonville Jaguars (-7) at Detroit Lions
Following a loss to the previously winless Bengals, the Jaguars sent defensive captain Mike Peterson home. They forced players to change lockers. TV, music, games, all banned from the locker room. At 3-5 and looking up at the Colts and unbeaten Titans, Jacksonville may be in worse shape than this week’s opponent. Nah.
QB Jon Kitna is begrudgingly on IR and QB Dan Orlovsky is out for at least this week’s game with a thumb injury. Welcome to Detroit, Daunte Culpepper. Culpepper just signed a two-year deal with the team and is expected to take over after only three practices. I’ve got to say, I love the thought of a Culpepper-to-Calvin Johnson connection, but can they possibly be on the same page already?
Pick: Detroit Lions +7
St Louis Rams at New York Jets (-8)
After an incredible 2-0 start under Jim Haslett, the Rams have lost two straight including last week’s 34-13 drubbing by Kurt Warner and the Arizona Cardinals. RB Steven Jackson is on a “short leash” according to Haslett, meaning he may miss the game. Without Jackson, this Rams offense will have to look to rookie WR Donnie Avery for a spark.
The Jets took downed the Bills a week ago, pulling into a three-way tie for the lead in the division. With the Bills and Patriots matching up, the Jets need this game in order to keep pace. You can almost count on at least one Favre INT, but look for him to put up some solid numbers early and then lean on his running game.
Pick: New York Jets -8
Baltimore Ravens (-1) at Houston Texans
The Ravens head into Houston riding a three game winning streak, during which they have averaged 31 PPG. Before the season, if you would have told me the Ravens would score 31 points in any given game I would have called you a fool. Rookie QB Joe Flacco has shown that he can play in this league and is way ahead of the curve. It also doesn’t hurt to have one of the deepest run games in the league.
With QB Matt Schaub out with a torn MCL, the fans in Houston get their wish. Sage Rosenfels takes over a team that looks ready to make some noise. There is no secret who he will be looking for. Over the past two seasons, WR Andre Johnson has averaged 122 YPG at home.
Pick: Baltimore Ravens -1
San Francisco 49ers at Arizona Cardinals (-9.5)
After losing five games in a row, Mike Singletary wants more from his team. And apparently he thinks his team wants “more” from him as he dropped trow at halftime of their 34-13 loss to the Seahawks. The team’s QBs have been sacked 34 times already this year, most in the NFL. Their own offense is the least of their troubles this week, however, as the defense tries to stop the white hot Cardinals offense. Good luck.
Speaking of that Arizona offense, the Cardinals are the only team with three receivers over 500 yards on the year – Larry Fitzgerald, Anquan Boldin and Steve Breaston. Rookie RB Tim Hightower rushed 22 times for 109 yards and a TD in his first career start last week. Hightower now leads all rookies with 7 TDs this season.
Pick: Arizona Cardinals -9.5
Green Bay Packers at Minnesota Vikings (-2)
Despite the Packers’ wild ride over the past year or so, one thing remains: complete domination of the Vikings. The Packers have won five straight meetings, nearly doubling up the Vikings on points over that stretch, 113-59. QB Aaron Rodgers is still playing through pain (shoulder), but has still been keeping his team in games. Look for Rodgers and his group of wideouts to spread the field on a disappointingly porous Minnesota D.
With a win over the Texans and a Green Bay loss to Tennessee, Minnesota is back in the NFC North race. Even with Gus Frerotte under center, the offense is moving. WR Bernard Berrian has a TD in four straight, and RB Adrian Peterson is getting it done with three straight 100-yard rushing performances of his own.
Pick: Green Bay Packers +2
Tennessee Titans (-3) at Chicago Bears
A close call a week ago, but following an OT win against Green Bay, the Titans are still undefeated. Many prognosticators said this would be the game that ended their winning streak, but most did not expect Rex Grossman to be starting for the Bears. Expect the defense to get after the panic-stricken QB and add to its league-leading +10 turnover margin.
As much as I hate Grossman as a starting QB, the guy looked OK last week rallying the Bears from behind with TDs on the ground and through the air. Of course, that was against the Lions. Chicago will need to get rookie RB Matt Forte rolling early to stand any chance in this one.
Pick: Tennessee Titans -3
New Orleans Saints (PK) at Atlanta Falcons
The Saints were able to hang on to beat the Chargers in their Week 8 meeting in London. After a much needed bye, New Orleans is on the road again. QB Drew Brees can not be stopped, and while RB Reggie Bush will sit at least one more week, WR Marques Colston is back and should provide Brees with yet another option through the air.
Week after week I rant and rave about the big three in the ATL, and this week is no different. QB Matt Ryan is leading his team like a seasoned vet, especially at home where his passer rating is 3rd highest in the NFL at 121.9. WR Roddy White and RB Michael Turner help round out the offense, making the Falcons the only team with at least one 700+ yard rusher and one 700+ yard receiver.
Pick: Atlanta Falcons PK
Indianapolis Colts (NL) at Pittsburgh Steelers (NL)*
*No line has been given on this game due to the uncertainty of PIT QB B. Roethlisberger.
After taking care of the Patriots 18-15 last week, the Colts now travel to Pittsburgh to take on the Steelers and their punishing defense. Given their lack of a running game, Indy will rely on QB Peyton Manning to get them by another AFC powerhouse. Manning got some long awaited help a week ago as second-year WR Anthony Gonzalez scored his first two TDs of the year.
Sure, the Steelers may be without Big Ben (shoulder), but Byron Leftwich looked good in relief against the Redskins. RB Willie Parker will be inactive yet again, but Mewelde Moore has shown he can handle the load. The main factor here is the Steelers defense. After sacking the ‘Skins Jason Campbell 7 times, Pittsburgh now has a league-high 32 sacks on the year.
Pick: Steelers NL
Buffalo Bills at New England Patriots (-4)
A 4-0 start to the season had Buffalo fans whispering “this is our year”. The 1-3 stretch that followed quickly shut them up. There is no questioning the talent on offense, but the defense can’t seem to stay healthy. This week, arguably the Bills two best defenders will sit in safety Donte Whitner and pass rush specialist Aaron Schobel.
The Patriots are doing what no one thought they could: win without Tom Brady. WR Wes Welker continues to lead the way on offense, tying an NFL record with 6+ catches in his team’s first 8 games. Something tells me he will shatter that obscure record this season. On the history front, New England has owned the Bills of late, winning nine straight by an average score of 32-9.
Pick: New England Patriots -4
New York Giants at Philadelphia Eagles (-2.5)
What a game this should be. The Giants actually come into Philadelphia as the underdog despite their 7-1 record. That has something to do with the recent play of QB Eli Manning. The younger Manning has averaged just 176 yards passing over the last four games. Expect to see a large helping of Brandon Jacobs early, as the Giants try to keep an aggressive Eagles defense honest.
Whether through the air or on the ground, the Eagles will find RB Brian Westbrook. The Giants can try to stop it, but they won’t. If QB Donovan McNabb can avoid a sack happy Giants defense, he should be able to pick his spots. A few dinks and dunks over the middle to pull the safeties up, the next thing you know WR DeSean Jackson is wide open. He may decide to punt the ball into the stands before he reaches the end zone, but Jackson will likely play a huge role, offensively and as a return man.
Pick: Philadelphia Eagles -2.5